Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions

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Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to some of the following expected outcomes: Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD); More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society; More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action. Scope: Climate scenarios have been instrumental in shaping global, national, and increasingly local responses to climate change by helping stakeholders make informed decisions. Against the backdrop of rapid environmental shifts, social upheavals, high uncertainties and complexity, scenarios must be advanced to inform low-emission climate-resilient pathways, while also accounting for other critical policy priorities, such as environmental protection. Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity. Proposals are expected to address only one of the following priority areas, which should be clearly indicated: Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation. Area B: Improved scenario frameworks Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways…